Sterling has been trading mixed, holding near net unchanged versus the US dollar, gaining versus the underperforming yen while losing ground to the euro. Cable is entrenched in a narrow range centered around 1.3160-70, having lifted out of a four-session low at 1.3140, tracking the price action of EUR/USD to a large degree Wednesday, although EUR/USD logged a four-session high.

The pound has been tarnished by warnings about Brexit from the OECD and various business groups Tuesday, along with shaky political backdrop, with the ruling Tory party mired in infighting at a crucial time in Brexit negotiations, and with most pundits seeing an outside risk of there being another general election if the Tory party’s fragile link with the Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party breaks.

Data Wednesday highlighted the dichotomy between a 41-year low in unemployment and real wage declines. September retail sales, out Thursday, provides the next UK data, where Action Economics said they expect a 0.1% month-on-month contraction (median same).


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